Infodemic: How Did the 'Jean-Michel Trogneux' Rumor Spread?

After three years of investigation, Natacha Rey, a figure close to conspiracy theorist circles, concluded that the French First Lady is a transgender woman who was previously named Jean-Michel Trogneux. Her research was published in relative obscurity on October 18, 2021, as part of the article series Faits & Documents[1]. It wasn’t until mid-December that mainstream media picked up the story, with the hashtag #JeanMichelTrogneux ranking among Twitter’s top trends in France from December 13 to 15[2]. In this analysis, Predicta Lab sets out to retrace how this conspiracy narrative gained enough traction that Brigitte Macron intended to press charges against those behind the rumor[3].

Figure 1: Timeline of the #JeanMichelTrogneux rumor

It was on December 10 that Natacha Rey’s series of articles found two relays that fueled its subsequent popularity. First, the blog Profession Gendarme, home to numerous articles opposing vaccination[4] and the health pass[5], published a piece on the subject that drew 942 views on the day it went live[6], peaking at 23,880 views on December 14[7]. This conspiracy theory was then picked up in an interview with Natacha Rey on the eponymous YouTube channel of the medium Amandine Roy. Before being taken down from YouTube, the video reached 312,000 views on December 14[8]. This four-hour livestream thus appears to be the trigger for the spread of the Jean-Michel Trogneux rumor.

To find out how and by whom this story was popularized, Predicta Lab collected tweets published between January 1 and December 16, 2021 that mentioned the hashtag #JeanMichelTrogneux.

As suggested by #JeanMichelTrogneux’s presence among Twitter’s top hashtags, the highest volume of tweets including #JeanMichelTrogneux were posted on December 13, 14, and 15, peaking at 4,958 tweets on the 14th (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Number of tweets containing #JeanMichelTrogneux posted per day

Account Analysis

Analyzing the 16,777 tweets, we found that 4,170 Twitter accounts interacted with the hashtag #JeanMichelTrogneux. Using Graphistry, we measured the activity level of the various accounts involved. This measure includes two components: “degree_in”, which counts the tweets posted by the account in question, and “degree_out”, which counts the number of times the account is mentioned by another account. “Degree total” adds these two measures together.

Figure 3: Ranking of the most active accounts

Figure 3 shows the five most active accounts (degree total). We first note that the three most present accounts are also the most active, since their “degree_in” is high, but they aren’t retweeted much by others, as their “degree_out” is much lower. We can also observe that @POIRKY68, @Johan77790713, and @DANTESEEdmond5 all three appear to be anti-vaccination (Figure 4).

Figure 4: The accounts mentioning #JeanMichelTrogneux the most[9][10][11]

The Media Called Upon

Notably, BFM TV features prominently in the collected sample of tweets, ranking 4th in the Figure 3 leaderboard. This is not due to any mention of #JeanMichelTrogneux by BFM itself, since its “degree_in” is zero, but rather to a very high “degree_out”. In other words, @BFMTV was mentioned 282 times by other accounts alongside the hashtag. This indicates not only that users called on BFM TV to address the topic, but also that they are likely regular viewers of the channel.

By the same logic, the ranking of the most mentioned accounts (Figure 5) reveals that users of the hashtag #JeanMichelTrogneux are also consumers of Cnews and CampagnolTVL. The president’s Twitter account also appears in the ranking, mainly because users wanted a reaction from him. Finally, the presence of the account of Florian Philippot, former vice-president of the Front National[12], is likely an indicator of the political leanings of the users active in this debate.

Figure 5: Ranking of the most mentioned accounts

None of the media outlets or public figures called upon spoke out on the subject during the period analyzed, with the exception of @CampagnolTVL, which posted several tweets using the hashtag in question. It’s worth noting that this account also appears to be opposed to the Covid-19 vaccine (Figure 6).

Figure 6: The main media relay for #JeanMichelTrogneux[13]

Although this outlet doesn’t have the audience of BFMTV or Cnews, with only 25,000 followers on Twitter, it was nonetheless an important relay of this rumor, as shown by its number of connections within the #JeanMichelTrogneux network on Graphistry (Figure 7).

Figure 7: @CampagnolTVL’s connections within the #JeanMichelTrogneux network

Associated Hashtags

Looking at the hashtags present in our dataset, a clear distrust of health authorities emerges (Figure 8). However, this figure is skewed by the account @Kill_Bill_95BK, which posted the tweet shown in Figure 9 147 times over two days in order to artificially boost the popularity of these conspiracy-related hashtags. The hashtags from these tweets are underlined in red in Figure 8.

Figure 8: hashtag cloud

Figure 9: repeated tweets from @KillBill_95_BK

Conclusion: The Typical Profile

From our analysis, we can draw out the “typical profiles” of the “consumers” of this conspiracy theory about the First Lady. First, the conspiracy captivated anti-vaxxers: the accounts most vocal on this topic also criticize Covid-19 vaccination and the associated government measures. Next, active members of the #JeanMichelTrogneux network are viewers of rolling news channels such as Cnews and BFMTV. Furthermore, they also appear to be aligned with far-right political parties, as shown by the numerous calls directed at Florian Philippot.

Thus, the Jean-Michel Trogneux rumor started on a medium’s platform, was relayed by conspiracist media outlets, and ultimately spread throughout anti-vax communities.

@AlicePredictaLb

[1] Rey, N. (October 18, 2021). Le Mystère Brigitte Macron. Faits et documents. Retrieved from https://www.faitsetdocuments.com/anciens-numeros.php

[2] Getdaytrends. (2021). #JeanMichelTrogneux. Getdaytrends. Retrieved from https://getdaytrends.com/fr/france/trend/%23JeanMichelTrogneux/

[3] Cittone, J. (December 20, 2021) Brigitte Macron va engager des poursuites après les rumeurs l’accusant d’être transgenre. Le Figaro. Retrieved from https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/brigitte-macron-va-engager-des-poursuites-apres-les-rumeurs-transphobes-a-son-propos-20211220

[4] Labosse, L. (December 27, 2021). Comment l’organe de propagande coronazi Le Monde prépare les esprits à la solution finale contre les non vaxinés. Profession Gendarme. Retrieved from https://www.profession-gendarme.com/comment-lorgane-de-propagande-coronazi-le-monde-prepare-les-esprits-a-la-solution-finale-contre-les-non-vaxines/

[5] Profession Gendarme. (December 27, 2021). Le passe vaccinal, une mesure de ségrégation que même Vichy n’avait pas osée. Profession Gendarme. Retrieved from https://www.profession-gendarme.com/le-passe-vaccinal-une-mesure-de-segregation-que-meme-vichy-navait-pas-osee/

[6] Web Archive. (2021). Capture. Internet Archive Wayback Machine. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20211210201707/https://www.profession-gendarme.com/scoop-cette-operation-a-pour-but-dinterpeller-en-masse-brigitte-macron-a-propos-de-son-frere-jean-michel-surnomme-aussi-le-disparu-damiens/

[7] Web Archive. (2021). Capture. Internet Archive Wayback Machine. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20211214015324/https://www.profession-gendarme.com/scoop-cette-operation-a-pour-but-dinterpeller-en-masse-brigitte-macron-a-propos-de-son-frere-jean-michel-surnomme-aussi-le-disparu-damiens/

[8] Roy, A. (December 10, 2021). Première interview de Natacha Rey la journaliste qui a enquêté pendant 3 ans sur Brigitte Macron. Youtube. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20211214014253/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7zmHfS1PCY

[9] @POIRKY68. (December 26, 2021). #JeanMichelTrogneux. Twitter. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20211226195723/https://twitter.com/POIRKY68/status/1475192759627784194

[10] @DANTESEdmond5. (December 28, 2021). Ed Dantes 🇫🇷. Twitter. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20211228131852/https://twitter.com/DANTESEdmond5

[11] @Johan77790713. (December 23, 2021). Les 2 et 3 doses. Twitter. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20211223215537/https://twitter.com/Johan77790713/status/1474135323210915840

[12] Guillot, F. (2021) Florian Philippot. FranceCulture. Retrieved from https://www.franceculture.fr/personne-florian-philippot

[13] @CampagnolTVL. (December 25, 2021). Campagnol a le plaisir de vous annoncer. Twitter. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20211225172140/https://twitter.com/CampagnolTVL/status/1474792211913007105